Foreclosures and financial reform

I came across a new blog I think is pretty good. Have a read.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/more-foreclosures-please/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/on-to-financial-reform/

I think he outlines these two things pretty well, and I don't really have anything to add. I haven't figured out his particular bias yet.

Doomed?...

I've been reading lately that optimism may not be the best attitude for this country. Here, here, here, and also here.

In short:

"Optimism has always been the enduring spirit that made us a great nation, brought us back from overwhelming challenges and impossible odds -- WW II, the Civil War, the 1776 Revolution. Yes, that spirit still burns in our soul, says the poll.

But we also know, as we said earlier in "The Death of the Soul of Capitalism," that over the long-term, through many centuries, historians give nations an average of about 200 years before they burn out. Why? Because the "blind optimism" that makes a nation great in the early years of its rise to power and glory becomes, paradoxically, its worst enemy in the end-days.

Their arrogance traps them in a self-sabotaging cycle that weakens their resolve, makes them vulnerable to new, unpredictable challenges, ultimately destroying them from within. That happens over and over throughout history, even as their optimistic brains tell them they're still the greatest."

Wow. I'll agree with that. But what do we do? Clearly depression and pessimism are not the answers either. But I think that any optimistic solution for this country has to involve sacrifice in the present term. And if they do not then I believe they are the sort of 'blind optimism' spoken of above. None of the serious pieces of legislation in Congress have had anything like that in them, probably since WWII. When we will have the courage to realize that is what is required?

Dreams

Well the wife and I have decided to pass some kind of cold/flu back and forth between each other for the past few days here. Not really sure if it was the big SWINE FLU, but here's hoping it is so that we will now have the anti-bodies.

But what really got me on here was that I've had a couple of vivid strange dreams over the last couple weeks and I wanted to write them down.

The first one involved me and Darryl; we were in an airport waiting to board, and it was very clear that we were going to Brazil. It wasn't really clear why Brazil, but I think it did have something to do with telling people about Jesus. But the details for that were definitely not worked out. So they start boarding, my ticket is scanned and we're walking down the tube to get on the plane.

But then the tube isn't just a tube, and we are in a larger airport terminal, and we've gotta hustle to get to the plane before it takes off. And the building is freaking huge and not all that well marked, but also mostly empty so we can run without looking stupid. After I get a ways away from when they scanned my ticket, I realize that I don't have my wallet or keys. I must have still had my ID because I wasn't worried about that, and I did have my phone. But I realized that my phone wasn't going to do me a bit of good because I'm going to Brazil and Verizon doesn't work there. So I just shrug my shoulders and press on trying to get to the plane, because I figure I don't need my wallet or keys. Which is weird for me because normally I would freak out about that and maybe even wake up, but I think the fact that I freaked for just a minute and then said "oh well" confirms that I was going to Brazil to just tell people about Jesus, and what the heck would I need money or keys to stuff in the States for?

So we're running through this terminal trying to find the plane, and a couple times we almost get lost and I don't think we're going to find it. But after going up some stairs and around some very strange architecture we find a room with a bunch of people that are going to Brazil, and we can see the plane through the window. Sweet.

The room with the people turns out to be set up kinda lecture style, and I realize that it's a bunch of people about the same age as me and its like a neighborhood association meeting only they are near the end of a long and involved conversation about racial reconciliation. And I just have enough time to realize this when we start getting on the plane and I wake up.

Now. I had this dream like two weeks ago and I still remember most of it, which is weird. I did tell some people at work an abbreviated version of it the day of though, which I think helped it stick. But I don't know where the heck Brazil came from. The closest thing I can think of is that Darryl's wife lived there for a while. But our wives weren't with us in my dream. I've been to Bolivia and that was alright but I don't know quite what to think.


And then about a week after that I had another maybe related dream. This time it was me and David (my youngest brother) and we were out in the bush in some third world village in the southern hemisphere. That's all the detail I had on the location on this one. So me and David were hanging out with the tribal people, doing whatever. Specifically then we were hanging out in one of the huts, only it was like a dorm room because we were up on top of bunk beds and there were a bunch of us in there. Just hanging out and shooting the breeze. David is talking and he's gesturing wildly or something and then he falls off of the bed. And somehow he just does a face plant without bracing his fall at all and lands right on his forehead. Knocks him out cold.

So I hop down to see if he's OK, and we decide that he'll be fine. Just knocked him out for a bit. And at that moment I've apparently got to leave for a few weeks to take care of some business, or go preach in another village, I'm not really sure. When I get back at the end of that trip David had undergone quite the transformation. The fall apparently erased his memory completely, and he is now one of the tribe. Loin cloth, dirt all over himself, spear, speaking another language. And he doesn't recognize me as his brother at all. But I see that he is much happier. He's doing quite well for himself in his new life and all of the anger and resentment he had at our dad (and me) is erased and it is as if it never happened for him. It's sad for me and our mom that he doesn't recognize us, but we see that its probably for the best. And then I wake up.


So, I don't know if they mean anything, but they are interesting. And I swear, this was well before I got sick and I had not been drinking the night before. So where's the interpreter?

:)

woot.

My New Truck

Well sheesh, has it really been two months since I've posted? Sheesh. Well I bought a new truck yesterday, and the experience was definitely blog worthy.

I got a blue '94 Toyota Pickup 5speed extra cab 2WD 4-cylinder with 211k miles for $2500. I'm pretty happy with it so far. 2500 was what I had budgeted, and despite the high miles I think I got the most I could for my money. I actually found it on autotrader.com, not craigslist surprisingly, it was at beaverton Honda. It was definitely the only vehicle there under 5k and probably only 1 only a handful under 8k. They were asking $3k, which is really quite reasonable for a '94, except for the high miles.

We made a total of five separate trips to their lot.

So Ginny and I mosey over there the first time at about 11:00AM, give it the once over with the salesman, drive it around, and come back and sit down in the dealership. As we are walking away from the truck I mention that I have 23 benjamin's in my pocket that I would like to pay for the truck. The salesman doesnt acknowledge my comment, and this doesn't come up again for a while. He gets our phone number and address, he asks for my social security number and I tell him he doesnt need it. Then the dude disappears for about 15 minutes. Ginny is kinda anxious, she just wants me to buy a rig so we can be done with this.

Then Darryl calls me. He had just bought his plane ticket to come to the wedding, we get to talking about whatever and just as he is explaining to me that he's going back to school, the salesman finally comes back over. But I'm a little bent out of shape that he had me waiting, so I ignore him and I guess he walks away. Darryl is talking to me about how he's going to med school, and that is just blowing my mind. I let him know that I'm kinda in the middle of trying to buy a car waiting for some folks to come back, and then he just goes off on them for making me wait. See, good ole Darryl hasn't led me wrong yet, especially on buying something, or more accurately, waiting.

So I get off the phone after only about a 8 minute conversation, and my sales dude is nowhere to be found again. what the crap. We wait another 5 minutes or so and then I tell Ginny that we're leaving. She isn't convinced that is a good strategy, but darryl and my spider sense were telling me that it's time to go. And amazingly, we successfully walk out without anyone saying a word to us. But they were watching, oh yes, the eye of Sauron is always watching.

Ginny and I hadn't had breakfast, and it's about 1230 so we go to her mom's favorite vietnamese place for lunch. My phone rings in transit, I figure it must be the salesman so I don't answer. Ginny thinks this is ridiculously rude, so before we go in to eat I call him back and say that we'll be back in like a half an hour. I particularly enjoyed that I did have a legitimate excuse, we were hungry, so I can be friendly and not act like I'm playing hardball.

During lunch I realize that 2300 is too low, so we hit the ATM for another 200 before we head back. We there and I really don't want to sit down. They want you to sit down. But I do anyway. Bastards. The same salesman gets his piece of paper out with the 4 squares on it and he's got $2995 written in one of the squares. I tell him that's great, I like the truck, but it's got a lot of miles and I can pay $2300. He hems and haws blah blah blah I'm not really listening because I know he's not the one that can make these kinds of decisions. I tell him 2300 a few more times and he finally goes and gets his manager. Finally. We're making some progress.

The middle manager dude is much more direct. We can look each other in the eye and I know that there's a chance he's not totally full of crap. He tries to pull out blue book numbers and I tell him that won't really help because he gets different numbers than I do. He tells me the truck only had one owner. Blah blah blah. 2300. At this point we stare deeply and authentically into each others eyes. He tells me that he will sell the truck for 3000 this very weekend. I congratulate him for that achievement, but am firm that I cannot pay 3000, I can pay 2300. We reach an impasse and shake hands to leave. As we are walking towards the door, he asks if 200 would do anything for me. Without looking at him or slowing down my path for the door I say that it will not and that I can pay 2500. Exit stage right. I cannot hard the middle manager worked to overemphasize his every word to make it as nice sounding as possible. It was like talking to someone who is consoling you over your dead cat. I'm so sorry, thank you for coming in today, we REALLY appreciate it.

Whatever.

At this point I've moved on mentally. It took 2.5 hours to get to the point where we could have the 5 minute conversation on whether I could buy this truck or not. Honestly I wasnt sure. I had a list of 7 trucks from the internets, this was definitely the one I liked the best but it seemed like a bit of a reach for the 2300 I wanted to spend, and I was already at 2500 and dude was only down to 28. So whatever. I call the one on the list that was only asking 1000, but there's no answer or voicemail. OK fine. Maybe today is not the day.

Ginny and I head to Sears to register. (thats another topic, this one is already way too long) We're looking at mattresses about 2 hours later when the phone rings. Its the master negotiator middle manager dude from beaverton honda. He says that he hasn't sold any cars since I left and wants to know if I'd buy it for 2500. I say sure, I'll be there in about 40 minutes. (knowing it'll be more like 75) Wow. That was fantastic. I guess that's where you have all your bargaining power, when you're lying on a mattress inside Sears. Ginny and I laughed pretty hard. We still took our time and finished up our scanning. I am so done with waiting on these people. I went with Anthony and Keith when they bought their Honda's, and the Man sure made us wait a lot. I will make him wait for me. And if somebody else swoops in and buys my truck, good for them.

Amazingly, when we get back, neither of the two people that have been helping us are around. Are they for real? I mean I don't think they were just making up stuff this time around but still, they could have found someone. We left again. I will not let them make me wait, that is one of the main sources of their power. Just as we are walking in the door to Target, they call me back. This time I turn around immediately and head back and we are able to get r dun. woot. 2500 plus the bs 105 dmv fee that I just dont have the energy to fight over at this point despite carrying cash. 50 electronic filing fee my foot, 55 is legitimate but the rest is bologna.

So in six weeks I'll have the title, and hopefully it will end up being a good rig. (the 5th trip for those counting was because they forgot to take out their key box) But cash is definitely the way to go. Don't let those people make you wait. Props to Darryl for getting me fired up, and to Ginny for coming along for all the drama and keeping me bold.

Life is pretty good.

Hey yeah, it's alright around here. God is good. I finally feel kinda competent at my job, I'm still learning, but my confidence has improved a lot. I've tried to pray before site visits that they would go well and surprise surprise, its been OK.

Ginny and I are doing well. When she needs or feels something she is able to directly communicate it to me, and I am oh so grateful for that. With Jen's help the wedding invitations are coming together. Many logistical/manpower questions were solved by the simple decision to make the reception a potluck; meat and beverages are provided, folks are invited to bring a side or a dessert. The Facebook seems to be working OK as a savethedate/RSVP system, hopefully the wall will fill up with potential sides and desserts.

We have scheduled our initial meeting with our premarital counselor. I'm very glad to get that rolling, I think it's one of the more important planning activities.

We're thinking fairly seriously about buying a house. Prices and interest rates are low, and BO wants to lend me money without interest. We will hopefully be getting pre-qualified for a loan here soon, we haven't started that part of the process. I do have three ML#'s to share: 8110121, 8107310, and 9007936, if you would like to look. All are bank owned. All have their own plusses and minuses, but I think its a good cross section and something in that range should work. Ultimately it is up to the Lord, I'm not totally convinced it is the right thing to do for us but the iron does seem like it is hot.

I joined a gym. It costs too much, I did it when I still wasn't thinking that a house might be attainable, but it has been great. Amazing how consistently sore I am from only 2 hours a week. The Crossfit program is a great concept. At the end of my four month membership I will know how to safely do all kinds of free weight and gymnastics exercises. I feel really great.

Also feel great because I have changed my diet quite a bit. Not completely eliminating, but drastically reducing carbs, sugar and dairy. Especially the more processed variety. For the longest time I pled blissful ignorance with what I put in my body, but I think Jake finally wore me down and a switch got flipped. For instance, tonight my dinner was some ground beef, onion, bell peppers and mushrooms cooked up and then spinach "wilted" in. Fantastic. I just feel way better eating more fruits, veggies and simple homemade foods than a bunch of garbage with long confusing ingredient lists that nobody knows the origin of much of it. Rice and beans don't fit the Paleo specs but they sure fit my budget.

Jake said that one of the keys was that I just have to get over needing my food to taste good. I completely disagreed at the time but that sentence has stuck with me and I think its often true. Perhaps not in all situations, but if you wanted to make an arguement about wealth, priviledge and social justice I think lowering food standards (in an appropriate way) fits in well with that.

The main problem is I'm not getting enough sleep. I struggle to get 6 hours a night. And I am very blessed that that feels like my main problem. I hear folks talk about their TV shows or movies that they watch and I struggle to react in a socially nonawkward way, because I just don't understand where anyone finds the time for that stuff. I don't know where my time goes, but its not to sleep or TV.

And we finally sang a spanish song at Ethnos! That has been a long time coming for me. When I first came I had no problem articulating all the reasons why that could be awesome (and I think I even did to Paul once) but I've almost forgotten much of it now. But it was such a joy for me. Because I haven't had hope for that for a while when I try to talk about it with folks I fear that I am coming across as condenscending to anyone who does not understand, but I think that's just my excitement getting ahead of my brain. Essentially seeing Jesus when I went to Bolivia and striving for multi-ethnicity with Intervarsity were central turning points in my spiritual journey and maturity. And I don't know how to explain that casually without having a really really long conversation. And I can't do that now, I have to sleep. :) But I'll close with the words (roughly):

Si tuviera fe como un grano de mostaza
Esto lo dice el Senor (2x)

Tu le dirias a la Montana
Mueve te, mueve te (2x)

A la Montana, se movera, se movera, se movera x(4x)


If you had the faith of a grain a mustard says the Lord
You can say to this mountain: move, move
And it will move move.

more?

I'd really like to blog more. Really. But the time slots just aren't there. I take too long to develop my thoughts out, and even then they come out fairly convoluted. Just know, internets, that I have been thinking about you, and your time will come again. Sometime.

Paperclips and an Analogy of the Economy

So Isaac got us a digital converter box for our old TV that isn't hooked up to anything paid for. I pulled it out of the box, pulled out our old paperclip antenna, hooked it up and had it do its autoscan thing for channels, 15 found. We flip through them all and notice there's no OPB. What the crap? The picture sure looks good, but something is missing. So on a whim, we shoved the old paperclip wrapped in tin foil into the antenna in spot on the converter box, do another auto scan, and now we get 20 channels! I am very comforted to know that even in the digital age the role of the paperclip in improving reception has not been phased out.

On a completely different note, I came up with a visual representation of the American Economy and the incessent inane ridiculous and horrible bailouts. Many of you remember the snow storm last year, and that video of the car downtown that slid down the street, was out of control, but for some reason the driver thought that to regain control the best thing to do was to step on the accellerator even further.




I would argue that currently we are at about the 14 second mark of this clip.

At the start, we encountered some normal fluctuations in our reality, but we denied that they were a problem, got in our car and pressed on. It would have been possible to 'drive in the snow', if we had proceeded with caution, but we forged ahead at a speed that would be fine for normal conditions. In fact, when we encountered obstacles (mortgage bubble), we hit the gas even harder. (bailouts) But things still aren't working as fast as we want them to, we deny that it is snowing outside and maybe we should just slow down, and so congress is now pressing for even more bailouts. I mean, how are you supposed to drive a car without using the accelerator, I mean sheesh, we paid for this thing, thats what its there for. This bailout is the third corner of that intersection.

After 100 days or so into the BO administration after he's shot his wad, that will be the wall at the 4th corner. Then we will begin our long, slow slide backwards, until we come to rest against some other cars that have decided to lay off the accelerator long ago. Then we have to get out of the car and deal with what just has happened.

The United States is living at an unsustainable level of wealth, prosperity, expectation, entitlement and greed that does not match up with what can be realistically used from the earth and produced by our/any economy. We have to slow down and lower our expectations. Blaming a politician or political party may have its place but that is not where solutions start. Blame yourself for listening to the lies that they have been selling you. As old man Kenobi once said, "Who is more the fool, the fool or the fool who follows him?"

Real change begins with each individual. Especially once the government goes bankrupt. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for marching on Washington and demanding some accountability. Certainly the system is broken, Bernie Madoff drove that point home real well. Unfortunately, the way the government is being run currently is exactly a Ponzi/Madoff scheme. Using the money we can collect now from those gullible enough to believe in the system to pay off those who are more elite and have been entrenched and in bed with the system longer. Counting on money we will get in the future to finance priorities now.

But if the people rise up and and find ways to be contented with what we already have instead of always striving for what we might get tomorrow, we can survive this thing without anarchy. I am as guilty as everybody else of over consumption, but I'm really trying to cut back. But I still find myself obsessed with 99k homes that feel almost in reach of purchasing and not fully able to appreciate the good things I have now because of it. That I believe is the crux of the problem. Just slow that car down and it'll be OK. You cant dig yourself out of a hole.


Or, Isaac had a much more positive spin on the metaphor in his philosophical voice: "Like the snow, the bad conditions will melt away"

Updates

Getting married at 2PM June 27th at Peninsula Park. Lots still to do.

I put the red light up on school, teaching is still what I feel I want to do with my life but the license is going to have to wait for a year or two.

I joined Crossfit Portland for four months. It cost me an arm and a leg but so far its been worth it. I'm going to learn how to do tons of free weight exercises and its kicking my butt. I've got a workout log going in google documents, I'll share it with you if ya like.

I might finally be listening to Jake and some of his crazy health diet advice. We'll start with eating way more fresh produce and try to cut out many processed carbs.

The united states is ending, the national debt will bury us kinda like Khrushchev said. Personally I'm ready to embrace some elements of socialism, that's the way its going anyway, like it or not, so we might as well strive to draw out the positive elements. Personally I'm ready for some free public (indoor) spaces to just be that are not a store.

Embezzlement

TMQ Asks Again -- Why Isn't This Considered Embezzlement?

Last week, Louise Story of The New York Times reported that Merrill Lynch top executives awarded themselves between $5 billion and $6 billion in bonuses in 2006, based on claims of spectacular gains in mortgage-based securities. This year, it turned out the claims were false: Merrill declared a $19.2 billion loss on mortgage paper, and the 2006 results were "written down" (declared worthless). Merrill was sold at a distress price to Bank of America, and shareholders were clobbered in the transaction. Yet Merrill executives kept the bonuses. As stock prices have tumbled, many financial companies have admitted to cooked books, declared big losses and taken huge write-downs. Charles Prince, who was recently shown the door as CEO of Citigroup, paid himself $110 million in bonuses for five years as CEO, and upon departure, received an exit package worth $68 million which included such absurd perks as a car and driver for life. Owing to bad management moves by Prince, Citigroup's share price fell 60 percent during his tenure, costing stockholders $64 billion in lost value, yet Prince got to keep the bonuses. Angelo Mozilo, the CEO of Countrywide Financial, which melted down as a result of its sale of gimmick loans, paid himself $410 million over the past eight years, plus many perks such as private jet travel for his wife. In the year before Countrywide was also acquired at a distress price by Bank of America, the company's stock plunged almost 85 percent, costing stockholders about $20 billion in lost value -- yet Mozilo got to keep the bonuses.

Very high pay to Wall Street managers is justified on the grounds that they are financial geniuses with astonishing expertise. Instead it turns out many financial industry managers made basic blunder after basic blunder. The 2008 financial markets crash belies the entire premise of Wall Street -- that the people there deserve huge paychecks for incredible skill in finance. Any fool can make money in a rising market by borrowing! But if the rise stops and you're leveraged, you hit the wall. This is the short version of how many Wall Street and hedge fund managers appeared to be "financial geniuses" from 2003 to 2006, then ended up destroying their investors. The financial manager with true expertise knows to avoid bubbles, especially bubbles based on borrowing. Many Wall Street and big-bank managers during the housing bubble were taking wild risks or performing no due diligence -- and when the risks blew up, they got to keep their bonuses while investors and stockholders got hosed. At this point, it's totally obvious the system is rigged -- lie about returns (or take crazy risks), claim a spectacular year, award yourself a vast bonus. When the scandal hits, so what? You keep the bonuses. TMQ's basic question: Why isn't this considered embezzlement, punishable by law? Financial managers have a fiduciary responsibility to act in their investors' interest. When financial managers instead act against their investors' interest in order to line their own pockets, that isn't just cynical -- that sounds like a crime.

[+] Enlarge

AP Photo/Diane Bondareff

"Our senior executives are counting their bonuses and can't see you now. Your money can't see you now, either."

Note 1: In case you're wondering, I hold no grudge against Wall Street since I've had no problems -- years ago I took my own advice and kept my money far away from highly paid financial managers claiming to possess incredible insider expertise. Note 2: Here, Robert Chew describes how he lost his life savings by entrusting the money to Bernard Madoff. Why did he do it? Chew had some rich relatives who invested with Madoff, and whispered about how Madoff had a super-secret investing formula. Tuesday Morning Quarterback repeats: There are no secret investing formulas! If there were, Goldman Sachs (which still exists) would immediately buy them.

Obsenities

This is obscene.

Some selections:

"We've lent some of it. We've not lent some of it. We've not given any accounting of, 'Here's how we're doing it,'" said Thomas Kelly, a spokesman for JPMorgan Chase, which received $25 billion in emergency bailout money. "We have not disclosed that to the public. We're declining to."

"We're not providing dollar-in, dollar-out tracking," said Barry Koling, a spokesman for Atlanta, Ga.-based SunTrust Banks Inc., which got $3.5 billion in taxpayer dollars.

"We manage our capital in its aggregate," said Regions Financial Corp. (RF) spokesman Tim Deighton, who said the Birmingham, Ala.-based company is not tracking how it is spending the $3.5 billion it received as part of the financial bailout.

Ummm, how to properly respond? BULLSHIT!!! Complete and total b-o-l-o-g-n-a. These are frickin banks! It is their job to know how they've spent their money! If they aren't competent enough to know, I have every reason in the current climate to suspect they are busy as can be concealing extra bonuses and 'compensation' for those in power. They got the government to buy stock in their own personal Madoff scheme and are playing the American people for fools. They know where the money is going, and they ought to tell. As the reporter puts it:

"If the appropriate restrictions were put on the money to begin with, if the appropriate transparency was in place, then we wouldn't be in a position where you're trying to call every recipient and get the basic information that should already be in public documents," she said.

Amen. I'm sure that much of it is being put towards the intention that was advertised; and also that a repugnant chunk is being used for nefarious purposes. This is unacceptable. I don't know what I can do about it. Vote incumbents out and not do business with any of these banks. Impossible, and for what gain? This world is jacked up. Screw you Gordon Gekko.

snowfun

Well we didn't get a snowman up, but we did make a killer ramp from the Ketah's front porch, down the steps, bank a left turn behind my beater pickup and down the street. My camera is at work or there would be some pictures, but it was killer.

No Snowmen

All this wintry blast, and I have yet to see one snowman in this town. I think I'm going to have to rectify that tomorrow. Rode the MAX back through downtown this evening and the place was a ghost town. The train was certainly full, but when I got off at 4th to transfer to the yellow I walked around a bit in amazement at the peace and quiet around me. I had stopped at saturday market this morning on my way out and there were pretty much no customers. I felt pretty bad for all the folks selling there who probably weren't going to have that great of a christmas this year; between the economy and the weather in Portland I'll bet sales are waaaay down. But seriously, go make a snowman.

East v. West

Portland Sch. Dist. - Schools west of Willamette River CLOSED; Schools east of Willamette River OPEN, buses on snow routes UPDATE (Effective tomorrow - Tue Dec 16th)

This was my brothers reaction to this news: It's because rich people are smarter and more beautiful than us.

It's things like this that contribute to perception of inequity between the east and the west side, and feeds the east side's inferiority complex. Nevermind the legitimate topographical reasons for this decision. (i assume) The perception is that the damn rich kids are getting a day off while the poor schmucks are stuck slaving away in the factories.

401k bailout

OK, so I'm considering jumping off of the 401k bandwagon. Wait wait, just hold of your knee jerk reaction, let me explain my rationale. I don't think it is a easy, obvious decision either way, and if you do I venture that you're just not thinking hard enough.

I understand the concept is that I should just put money in and not worry about negative returns in the short run, and that this may be a golden opportunity to "buy low." I also get that the earlier I start saving the easier it is to accumulate a lot, and that it would be silly not to take advantage of a company match.

But those things are not without risks of their own, and I think an intelligent decision weighs the risks and does not blindly hold to the conventional wisdom. If somebody would have told you a year ago that AIG or Bear Stearns would fail you would have reasonably told them they are nuts, and we see where that is now. Therefore I see every reason to question the assumptions that the 401k system is built on.

The concept of "buy low" is the most compelling to me, and it would be the reason that I would stay. But the concept of not being concerned about negative returns seems to advocating ignorance. I admit that I probably wouldn't be having these doubts if the system wasn't having the difficulty that it is having, but I am glad that I am being forced to think this through more thoroughly. I am absolutely seeking to have the longest term view possible, which for me is about 40-60 years. I am not confident that the systems that are in place now will remain for that amount of time, and I think that is a relevant risk that should factor in the equation. I'm not saying the sky is falling, but it sure seems like a possibility.

I am not convinced that essentially locking up $110 every two weeks into a somewhat mystical account somewhere in the nether regions of the financial system that I cannot access without penalty for at least 38 years is the best decision for me right now. For many it may be, but I am not many, I am me. I think that a good argument could be made that before worrying about investing in equitys and bonds I should have all credit card debt paid, a six month emergency fund in cash (in some kind of savings account that I haven't had reason to research the best kind for yet), and a home purchased (yeah with a mortgage, the 100% down plan is probably too hardcore). Those investments have much more tangible intrinsic value than stocks.

While real estate isn't necessarily a slam dunk investment either, at least you get to live in the place. The most a 401k statement can give me is to be a piece of kindling on a cold night. And as for the company match, I don't think I'll be around long enough to become fully vested, so that 3% is more like .6% or 1.2%. Which is $11 or $22 every two weeks. La di fricken da. Over a year or two that is 286-572 bucks, which is not worth making a decision over.

I wish that I was in a position that a 6% deduction from my check for a 401k was just gravy, but $110 is actually a significant amount. I'm trying to seek balance and diversification, but bothering with stocks now really seems like putting the cart before the horse. I also just don't like the traditional IRA with early withdrawl penalty, I'd much rather do a Roth. But the match should make the traditional worth the additional risk for most. Ramsey suggests saving 15% towards retirement, and if I was at a place where that was the right thing to do I would be quite comfortable with 9% in a Roth and 6% in a traditional. But I'd rather save for a house.

I'm also fairly spooked at the long term prospects of this country. The quantity of government bailouts is obscene, and there is not an end in sight. Those expenditures are unsustainable, and eventually it will catch up to us. I'm betting it will within the next 40-60 years, certainly the tax laws and what we regard as normal will be much different then. Everyone says that a 401k is the smart thing to do, I am therefore very suspicious of the idea. It just may be another way to control the masses, something they can threaten us with. Be afraid, or something may happen to your savings. People are already mumbling about how BO will take away private 401k's and socialize them. I think that's a bunch of bologna and won't happen, at least in the next 4 years. I wouldn't bet beyond that.

We've just got to slow down. Hoarding cash probably isn't the answer either, but it does have quite a bit of merit. What may have seemed psycho a short time ago may now have nearly enough positives to outweigh the inherent crazy soundingness. I'm sensing that preparing for doomsday is still crazy, but it's a much closer call. A 401k may still be a good idea for most, but it's a much closer call. And I think I jumped the gun on it.

It is very tempting to buy low, but if the 401k system continues to have a major disruption every 6-8 years, then it may be broken. When conventional wisdom claims anything is a no brainer, I am insulted and challenged that I am expected to not use my brain. I would not bet on the system sustaining itself for 60 years. Pay off your debts, all of them.

Spanning the Drudge

Well it's been a while since I've been on here, and now I've also got a dueling identity blogging thing going, and its all a bit much at times. But its time for some quick hits from the news.

Billary as SecState? Boo. But it looks like its going to happen. I hope this is a "keep your friends close, and your enemies closer" kind of situation.

Back on the bailout front, traditional gridlock seems to be reestablishing itself after the uncertainty of the election is over. That bitter pill would not have been swallowed by congress if it had not all went down right before the election. But they're getting a little tighter, and that's a good thing. A very compelling case can be made that letting the automakers go bankrupt would be a very bad thing, but if you're going to subsidize the industry that heavily just go ahead and call it socialized. I don't necessarily have a problem with that, but call it what it is and have some real restrictions on what executives can make. I would rather have them go bankrupt or out of business and let the free market take care of itself, but nobody seems to be interested in true conservatism anymore. Yeah there would be pain, but in the long run we would be better. GM is getting desperate though, asking Germany for help.

And on a somewhat lighter note, Mark Cuban's shadiness may be catching up with him. This charge is very believable on the face of it, he does seem like the kind of dude that would do that. But who am I to judge, it could also be a conspiracy to prevent him from purchasing the Cubs. Either way it is interesting.

And Go Blazers! I've got the fever, and even without the comcast thanks to justin.tv, I can watch every game. yeah baby yeah. Let there be no mistake, they are Brandon Roy's team.

dang B

It been pretty busy lately. And will continue to be for the next 3 weeks or so. But this was enough to get me back on the blogger for a minute.

Wow. It easy to say now, but I did think this story smelled funny the first day it was out before she fessed up to making the whole things up. But I was scared, because that kind of event could have been an election changer, which is of course what she thought and why she did it. It is interesting to think about how this kind of false accusation is not new to racism in this country, and it is encouraging how quickly it was sniffed out in this era.

I've got the ballot all filled out except for the President. Merkeley and yes on 60 and 63 I feel are the most important/interesting. I'll probably vote for Baldwin with the rest of the religious fundamentalists, I don't really feel good about it but I'm not going to write in this time or vote for a major party. Ron Paul endorsed him over Barr, and that's enough. Mostly I want to participate in the election without helping perpetuate the fraud that is the two party system. That will make the party line tally on offices with more than one candidate running look like this: Constitution -2, Democrat -2, Republican -1, "Working Families" -1. 3rd parties yes, incumbents no, incumbents who voted for the bailout HELL NO.

If I felt like Obama vs McCain was anywhere near as close in Oregon as Merkeley vs Smith, I would probably have to vote for BO. I'm only voting for the Merk to throw Smith out. The only thing that is left about Obama that is encouraging to me is his race, I do think that it will be a great thing for our country to have a black president. Unfortunately it's going to be pretty tough around here for at least the next four years, and I don't envy the tough decisions the next president will have to make. I hope that BO does not get turned on when all his talk of hope and change is overwhelmed by the looming recession, but it seems pretty likely.

I watched a pretty good movie when I went up to see my sister last weekend. Why We Fight, and it is on Youtube. It concerns the "military industrial complex" and the hidden costs of having a standing army. I absolutely agree. I had not seen the footage of Rumsfeld shaking hands with Saddam before, I would recommend it for that scene and one that is reminiscent of bad praise music on the hair channel, only it appears to be sung by officers. Just fantastic.

I concluded for the first time that we really should have impeached Bush for lying about WMD's and the Iraq war. But we didn't impeach Clinton for lying (trivial matter maybe, but he was under oath) so we couldn't well impeach Bush. (important matter, but only delivered in press conferences.)

All of that to say, I'm not very optimistic about the future of this country. I really don't want to live anywhere else, so I hope we can suck it up and push through without ridiculously high taxes or mass rioting. But again, not very optimistic.

But hey, the Blazers will at least be fun to watch in the meantime. If you havent been, try Blazersedge.com. Its a good pick me up.

... sigh

and in the beginning of the end, they passed it anyway.

Darryl emailed me this, and I think its about all I have in me to post tonight.



This article goes into some of the 'hidden gems' of the bailout: http://tinyurl.com/4xsona

'The Bill' can be found here: http://thomas.loc.gov/home/gpoxmlc110/h1424_eas.xml

To give some flavor I will provide a quote:

"Section 115 of the law says that the administration can, after notifying Congress and waiting 15 days, purchase and hold $700 billion of assets "at any one time." (It can buy and hold $350 billion without waiting.)

This, too, is a potential loophole. It permits the Treasury Department to buy up, say, $700 billion in 2008, sell those assets off gradually over the next year at a (probable) loss, and repeat the same process in 2009. Losses to taxpayers, in other words, could exceed $700 billion. Although the Treasury Department is instructed to try to avoid losses, the text of the law does not forbid that scenario."

We cannot sit idly, when it is time to stand.

I urge you to vote against incumbency in November.

they really said no...

I hope it turns out to be a meaningful defeat, but I doubt it. My congressman voted no, how did yours do? Ron Paul had some good thoughts. So did...Michael Moore. (thanks drudge)

I just can't believe that the house of representative performed exactly as the constitution intended them to. With their finger closely on the pulse of their constituents, because they will get voted out if they ignore the clear will of the people. Now that's an oversimplification, but it was certainly a big factor. Now we get to watch as the fat cats that are about to get paid promise to give congress a cut, and it'll pass. Sigh.

Debatable

Well that stunk. I was excited and ready to hear from those two, but boy was that a disappointment. Don't get me wrong, I still think either one of them will be miles better than Bush or Clinton, but sheesh. That was like kids bickering on the playground. I said that first. I've been saying that for years. I was there first. I've been there for longer. Blah blah blah. I think part of it is a background in the Senate rather than a governorship, but they both blew it.

So debates are out as a tool to help me pick a candidate. Unless they throw away the moderator and the notes and stick them in the octagon for 90 minutes to talk. Or bring in Colbert to actually make them answer a direct question, or suffer for avoiding them. I hope Sarah vs. Joe will be better, it sure seems like it has the potential.

Scott Adams has been pretty good lately at his blog. He posted two news links today, one and two. Read 'em if you have a few minutes, they're pretty good, dealing with the subject of bias. Apparently most of us have already made up our minds (on everything), and when we are presented with good factual evidence contrary to what we already know to be true, it only reinforces our opinions. We don't even really absorb or process information that doesn't fit into what we already know.

I read these this afternoon, and then listened to some radio commentary driving this evening on NPR even concerning who won the debate. And it was pretty clear that whoever was speaking their opinion of who won had preemptively formed that opinion months ago. Red or blue, both sides sounded ridiculously unobjective in support of "their" candidate. So what is the value in that? I already know that Republicans like McCain and Democrats like Obama, they would commentate in the same way the candidates would "answer" the questions, with preformed rhetoric. This is worthless information.

What concerns me however, is the potential illegitimacy of my own opinion. What if wanted to hear them both sound like a couple of whiny babies so that I could cry about it? I feel like I was trying to be objective but I'm not sure. They both made a limited amount of good points, and I tell myself that I wanted one of them to convince me, but I don't know if I'm buying it. I think I'm happier not taking a side and slamming both of them. And that maybe I secretely wanted that to happen weeks ago. So that's some food for thought.

I wish there was someone/thing trustworthy and objective out there. Oh wait, that's Jesus. Government is important but it's not going to help. I decided that I'm a libertarian socialist.